Economic Chaos or Opportunity?

Economic Chaos or Opportunity? History Repeats Itself — Which Path Do We Choose?

“A smooth sea never made a skilled sailor.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt

We’ve seen this before. Markets rise and fall. Rates soar, then crash. Governments overspend, consumers overborrow, inflation bites — and then, somehow, we bounce back stronger.

Right now, the economy feels like a boat tossed on unpredictable seas. Between higher interest rates, stubborn inflation, and growing uncertainty, it’s easy to feel adrift. But the truth? We’ve been here before. And we’ve come out ahead — every time, economic Chaos or Opportunity?

The Optimist’s View: Set Your Sails — The Wind Will Change

Let’s talk about what we’re seeing — and why it’s not all doom and gloom.

Interest Rates: They’ve Peaked Before, and Then Dropped

  • In 2008, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 2.5% in one year.

  • In 2020? A 1.5% drop in less than 12 months.

  • From May 2024 to June 2025: another 2.25% drop already underway. Pattern? Rates rise fast, then fall fast. Always have. History suggests we’re halfway through this rate cycle.

Real Estate: Prices Are Holding, and Equity Is Plentiful

  • Vancouver Island’s home prices are only 1.7% below 2022’s peak.

  • Anyone who bought in 2020? They’ve gained nearly 60% in home value.

  • Plenty of equity means refinance opportunities are still alive, especially after the first rate cut in June 2024.

For buyers who missed the 2021–2022 boom: your time might just be now.

Employment & Growth: We’ve Bounced Back Before

  • Yes, unemployment is up slightly.

  • Yes, consumers are cautious.

  • But Canadian inflation is back near target (1.7%) and wages are still rising.

In past recessions — like in the early 1980s, the 2008 financial crisis, or COVID’s 2020 chaos — we saw stronger growth emerge after periods of belt-tightening.

Tariffs, Debt & Deficits? Been There, Done That

In the 1930s, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act sparked a global downturn. Today, tariffs are still making noise, but we’re also:

  • Far more globally integrated

  • Faster to respond with policy

  • Quicker to innovate our way through disruption

And yes — even Warren Buffett said Trump’s tariffs are “a tax on goods.” But as with all taxes, we adapt.

The Other Side: What Happens if the Elephant Sneezes?

But let’s not sugarcoat it. When the U.S. sneezes, Canada doesn’t just catch a cold. Sometimes we get pneumonia.

Signs of Trouble:

  • U.S. job losses and jobless claims rising again

  • Consumer sentiment lowest in 12 years

  • Deficits soaring: $1.83 trillion, and counting

  • Tariff wars and political unrest mounting

If the U.S. economy staggers into full-blown stagflation — high inflation + low growth — it won’t just be a sneeze. It’ll be a stampede.

What That Could Mean for Us:

  • Canadian exports fall (we sell 75% to the U.S.)

  • Our bond yields rise if U.S. debt causes panic

  • Fixed mortgage rates could stay high even if BoC cuts

  • Investor confidence erodes if U.S. markets spiral

So, What Do We Do?

The “Set Your Sails” Strategy

  • Refinance if you can. Use your home equity. Rates are falling — timing matters.

  • Buy smart. Home prices have corrected slightly. With long-term amortizations, monthly payments are within reach again.

  • Stay diversified. Markets will rebound. Real estate, balanced investments, and steady income matter more than chasing hot trends.

The “Elephant Sneezes” Contingency

  • Build emergency savings.

  • Lock in fixed rates if you’re unsure about the future.

  • Don’t overextend on credit. U.S. bankruptcies and credit write-offs are flashing warning signs.

Final Thought: History Doesn’t Repeat — But It Rhymes

Every cycle brings fear — and eventually, recovery.

The 1980s. The Dot-Com bust. The 2008 collapse. COVID. Now 2025.

We’ve seen the storm clouds before. What sets winners apart is not fear or panic — it’s preparation, patience, and perspective.

So whether you see the wind shifting in your favor or hear the elephant sneeze in the distance, know this:

The tide always turns. The question is: Will you be ready to sail when it does?

Blog Posts
Insured Mortgage Changes

BC Tenancy and First Time Buyers

Zoning Changes: City of Nanaimo Bill 44 Response

Maximizing Income vrs Using Business Write Offs

Mortgage News
BOC Cut = lower interest costs

CMLS Aveo 40 Year Mortgage

Bank of Canada Forecasts

What Rate Cuts Mean to Borrowers

 

Bank of Canada Maintains Benchmark Interest Rate at 2.75%

Bank of Canada Maintains Benchmark Interest Rate at 2.75% in June 2025

Bank of Canada Maintains Benchmark Interest Rate at 2.75%, a position it has maintained since March and April of this year. This decision reflects the Bank’s cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. trade policy’s potential impacts on the Canadian economy.

Economic Performance and Outlook

Canada’s economy showed resilience in the first quarter, growing at a solid 2.2%. Key drivers included a boost from exports to the U.S. and inventory accumulation, while domestic demand remained relatively flat. Strong spending on machinery and equipment helped sustain business investment, even as consumer confidence dipped sharply, leading to a slowdown in consumption.

The housing market experienced a decline, mainly due to a significant drop in resale activity, and government spending was subdued. The labour market also faced challenges, with unemployment rising to 6.9%, especially in sectors heavily tied to trade. Looking ahead, the Bank anticipates a weaker second quarter, with expenditures remaining subdued as export and inventory gains diminish.

Inflation Trends

Inflation has decreased to 1.7% in April, aided by the federal consumer carbon tax, which shaved off 0.6 percentage points from the Consumer Price Index. Excluding taxes, inflation slightly exceeded expectations at 2.3%. Core inflation measures have also edged upward, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. The Bank is monitoring these indicators closely, especially as households and businesses anticipate tariff-related price increases.

Global Economic Context

Globally, economic resilience has been tested by trade tensions. U.S. demand remains solid but has been offset by higher imports, impacting GDP growth. U.S. inflation is gradually declining but remains above 2%, with tariffs influencing prices still to be felt. Meanwhile, Europe benefits from export strength, and China’s slowdown continues amid fading fiscal stimulus and higher tariffs curbing exports to the U.S.

Financial markets have largely recovered from April’s turmoil, with volatility easing but remaining sensitive to U.S. trade policy signals. Oil prices have stayed relatively stable, hovering near April levels.

The Bank’s Rationale

Given the high level of uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and their effects, the Bank opted to hold interest rates steady, aiming to gather more information on trade developments and their economic impact. The Governing Council highlighted the need for caution, balancing downward pressures from a weaker economy against upward pressures from rising costs.

Looking Ahead

Uncertainty remains elevated, as negotiations between the U.S. and China continue, and additional trade actions are possible. The Bank emphasized close monitoring of key risks—including the actual impact of tariffs on exports, investment, employment, and inflation expectations.

Final Notes

The Bank’s Governing Council reaffirmed its commitment to supporting economic growth while maintaining price stability amidst global upheaval: “We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability… We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.”

The next rate decision is scheduled for July 9, 2025. First National Financial will provide further insights following that announcement.

“While we understand the Bank of Canada’s choice to hold interest rates to combat inflation, today’s announcement comes as a disappointment to the thousands of British Columbian mortgage holders who are uncertain about their financial future.” Said Rebecca Casey, President of CMBA-BC. “Especially when affordability concerns are still on the rise, a rate cut would’ve gone a long way to ease some of the pressures facing Canadians.”

 

 

Blog Posts
Insured Mortgage Changes

BC Tenancy and First Time Buyers

Zoning Changes: City of Nanaimo Bill 44 Response

Maximizing Income vrs Using Business Write Offs

Mortgage News
BOC Cut = lower interest costs

CMLS Aveo 40 Year Mortgage

Bank of Canada Forecasts

What Rate Cuts Mean to Borrowers

 

 

CMHC’s Eco Improvement Program

CMHC’s Eco Improvement Program

CMHC’s Eco Improvement Program provides financial incentives to encourage the construction or renovation of energy-efficient homes. The Eco Program plays a pivotal role in Canada’s efforts to meet climate goals. CMHC’s Eco Program has an updated and expanded list of energy efficient certifications. Building codes are progressing toward net-zero ready standards and CMHC’s Eco Program is a Step Toward Sustainable Housing.

The initiative also promotes eco-friendly building materials, solar energy installations, and smart technology. Which help to reduce a home’s overall environmental footprint.

This means you could be eligible for a 25% refund on CMHC Insurance Premium. For some perspective; on a purchase price of $850,000 (must be below $1,500,000), with a minimum down payment of $60,000 the CMHC insurance premium is $30,600. Clients who buy a qualifying property, are eligible for a refund of up to $7900. CMHC’s Eco Program a step toward Sustainable Housing.

CMHC’s Eco Improvement Program Climate Change: A Growing Responsibility

The real estate industry is becoming increasingly aware of its environmental impact. New construction methods, energy-efficient home designs, and a greater focus on sustainability are all part of the movement to address climate change. Here are some key facts:

The Building Environment is a Major Contributor to Carbon Emissions: According to the World Green Building Council, buildings account for 39% of global carbon emissions, with energy use being the largest contributing factor.

Energy-Efficient Homes are More Attractive to Buyers: As consumers become more environmentally conscious, homes with sustainable features—such as solar panels, high-efficiency heating systems, and well-insulated walls—are growing in demand. Energy-efficient homes can sell for up to 7% more than their less-efficient counterparts, according NAR (National Association of Realtors).

Government Incentives are Growing: Programs like CMHC’s Eco Program are just one example of how governments are encouraging the real estate industry to reduce its carbon footprint. Financial incentives, rebates, and grants are available to homeowners and builders to promote energy efficiency and sustainable development.

To be Eligible:

A homeowner with CMHC Insured financing
Allocate a minimum $20,000 for energy-efficient improvements that fall within any of these 3 categories
Building Envelope (insulation, windows, doors, roof, attic, air tightness & foundation).
Mechanical systems (HVAC- Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning, heat pump systems).
Renewable energy systems (solar, wind, geothermal).
CMHC has made the program user friendly and beneficial for the homeowner, putting money back in their pocket is always a positive.

How do I get my Refund?:

Up to two years after the mortgage close date to submit the rebate request along with supporting documentation directly through CMHC’s website through their Eco Program and submit the application with supporting documentation. The funds can be used for any purpose, they do not have to be applied to the mortgage. The documents are good for up to five years. If the house sells the new buyer can also apply for the CMHC refund. See link to the application below.

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/professionals/project-funding-and-mortgage-financing/funding-programs/all-funding-programs/canada-greener-homes

Conclusion:

It’s clear that sustainability is becoming an increasingly important factor in the real estate industry. Thanks to programs like CMHC’s Eco Program, homeowners can take meaningful steps toward reducing their carbon footprint, lowering their energy costs, and contributing to the fight against climate change. The future of housing is green, and with the right incentives and awareness, the industry can lead the way in creating a more sustainable world.

Industries are looking for innovative ways to reduce their carbon footprints—and Real Estate is no exception. When it comes to homeownership, people face the choice between buying a new home or an existing one. Both options come with their own benefits. One key element shaping the future of both new and existing homes is Canada’s commitment to fighting climate change, particularly through initiatives like the CMHC’s Eco Program.

Have questions? Contact Kevin Decker, Jason Barudin, Blaire Bourcier or Tyler Moretti at Mid Island Mortgage & Savings LTD. 250-753-2242

Locally owned and operated since 1985.
“The name friends recommend”

Blog Posts
Insured Mortgage Changes

BC Tenancy and First Time Buyers

Zoning Changes: City of Nanaimo Bill 44 Response

Maximizing Income vrs Using Business Write Offs

Mortgage News
BOC Cut = lower interest costs

CMLS Aveo 40 Year Mortgage

Bank of Canada Forecasts

What Rate Cuts Mean to Borrowers

 

Secondary Suite Incentive

Couple unpacking their boxes in new home

The Secondary Suite Incentive Program (SSIP) will help homeowners create affordable housing in their communities. The program will provide money to help homeowners create a new secondary suite on their property to be rented out for below market value.

  • Homeowners who qualify will receive up to 50% of the cost of renovations, up to a maximum of $40,000.

The program will provide a rebate in the form of a forgivable loan—a loan that does not need to be repaid if the homeowner follows the terms of the program. For the loan to be forgiven, the new unit must be located on the same property where the homeowner lives and must be rented out at below market rates, set by BC Housing, for at least five years.

Learn more: Province of British Columbia’s Home Suite Home Guide.

Are you Eligible?

  • Is the home that you plan to build a suite in your primary home where you file taxes and register your vehicles?
  • Was the assessed value of your home in 2024 less than $2,150,000?
  • Are all registered home owners Canadian Citizens or permanent residents?
  • Was the combined income of all principal residents less than 209,420?
  • Is the home located within the approved list of municipalities?

follow this link to BC Housing’s checklist:

https://secondarysuite-eligibility.bchousing.org/

How to Apply

  1. Plan your project and prepare to apply
  • Check with your municipality to confirm if zoning allows for a secondary suite
  • Arrange for contractors and financing
  • Apply for a building permit as required (building permits issued on or after April 1, 2023 will be considered)
  1. Apply online using the SSIP portal

Apply for SSIP or manage application

  • Submit eligibility documents (proof of residence and income) and
  • Include your municipal building permit

Need SSIP portal help? View application resources for guides and videos

After you Apply

  • After approval, complete construction of your secondary suite
  • Once construction is complete
    • Submit the occupancy permit issued by your municipality
    • Provide proof of construction costs to receive the loan
  • Rent out suite and maintain program requirements

When program requirements are met, the loan will be forgiven

Applications will be approved on a first come, first served basis until annual funding is used up.

Frequently Asked Questions

Applications/Eligibility/Guide

https://www.fvrd.ca/assets/Services/Documents/Building~and~Bylaw/Guide%20to%20Secondary%20Suites.pdf

https://secondarysuite.bchousing.org/

https://www.bchousing.org/housing-assistance/secondary-suite

A Piece of Nanaimo History – The Occidental Hotel

 

The beginnings of the E&N Railway

The Occidental Hotel – a piece of Nanaimo history dates back to the 1870’s when construction began on the Canadian Pacific Railway. The construction of this transcontinental railroad would link British Columbia with the eastern Canadian provinces. This was a ‘term of the Union’ when BC joined the Canadian federation in 1871. Victoria, the capital of British Columbia, was proposed as the railways western terminus, thereby connecting Vancouver Island to the mainland.

The impracticability of bringing the railway across the Strait of Georgia to Victoria meant that the railway would take an alternate route. The line would end in Vancouver. It seemed Vancouver Island would not benefit from the transcontinental railway.  Island residents were angered by the change in route, and threatened to secede from Canada and become an independent colony.

To prevent this, the Federal Government offered to build an Island Railway and began to look for someone to build it. Robert Dunsmuir, the coal magnate from Wellington, BC was eventually chosen. He obtained financial aid from a group of American railroad millionaires and formed the company which was to build and own the railroad. Dunsmuir’s company received a land grant. It consisted of a twenty mile wide strip of land on Vancouver Island’s east coast, as well as a subsidy of $750,000.

Construction began on the Victoria-Nanaimo portion of the railway in 1884 and was completed in August 1886, when the last spike was driven by Sir John A. Macdonald at Shawnigan Lake.  Dunsmuir’s railway became known as the Esquimalt and Nanaimo Railway.

Samuel Fiddick

With the completion of the Esquimalt and Nanaimo Railway in sight, Samuel Fiddick (1833 – 1900) decided that it would be a profitable venture to build a hotel near the railway’s terminus on Selby Street. Nanaimo would become dependent on the railroad for passenger and freight service, and the Occidental Hotel or “Oxy” as it became known, was built to “cater to the railroad trade.”  Over the years, many patrons came to know the Occidental Hotel as “the first and the last.” Upon arriving in Nanaimo by train, the Occidental was the first pub, and upon leaving, it was the last.

Estimated Costs were $8000

The Occidental Hotel was built with money Samuel Fiddick received several years earlier from the sale of his coal lands in Cranberry District.  He and James Beck sold their interests near the Nanaimo River Bridge to James Harvey, close friend and associate of Robert Dunsmuir, for a large sum.

In 1886, Samuel Fiddick purchased three lots between Selby and Richards Streets from Thomas E. Peck of Cavan Street, Nanaimo.  Each lot had a frontage of 55ft on Fitzwilliam Street and varied in depth from 125ft  to 145ft. He submitted plans and specs for his proposed two story brick building to the City in March of 1886.  Alfred Summerhayes was awarded the contract to build Samuel Fiddick’s hotel and  construction cost’s were estimated at $8,000.  Before construction began, Fiddick altered the shape of the building so that its walls were built to the angle of the street.

IMG_8100 (1)

The first story was to be comprised of a bar and billiard hall in between.  The kitchen, washrooms, storage rooms, etc were to be located at the rear. The second story was to consist of thirteen large bedrooms.  In December of 1886 Samuel Fiddick applied to the City for a license to sell ales, wines, and liquors by retail.  His license was granted. An early advertisement read:

IMG_8102

And the rest is History.  We are intending to do a series of blogs about Nanaimo’s history and its historical landmarks.  If you have any history that you would like to share about Nanaimo,  we would love to hear from you.

For Sale

The Occidental Hotel: MLS® 941055

 

 

 

Mortgage Application

Crunch the Numbers

The Spring market is here!  Many buyers have been patiently waiting things out–watching the interest rates, and housing prices.  For buyers who continue to question if now is the time, we’ve done it for you, crunch the numbers that is.

Any way you slice it, by comparing March 2023 statistics to those from October 2022, you’ll see favorable conditions that show it’s time to buy. These differences may help you assist your client in deciding if they want to buy a home now or stay sitting on the fence.

NOTE: For this comparison we are using average stats for single family dwellings, with the minimum down payment, insured interest rates, based on 25-year amortization.  This is for illustration purposes only and meant for discussion. 

Let Them See For Themselves

 

Crunch the numbers for them and let them see that the Spring market is a good time for them to make the move. Clients who buy a home now could have savings in monthly payments of approximately $620 vs buying 6 months ago.

Look back to October 2022: 

  • Average home price in Nanaimo: $811, 475 (VIREB)
  • 5-year fixed rates 5.44%* 
  • Minimum down payment required $55,150
  • Household income needed to qualify: $189,000
    • Payments $4702 monthly 

Fast forward to March of 2023:

  • Average home price in Nanaimo $763,134 (VIREB)
  • 5-year fixed rates are 4.48%* 
  • Minimum down payment is $51,315
  • Household income needed to qualify: $164,605
    • Payments $4089 monthly

The numbers don’t lie–clients who waited to buy a home now stand to benefit compared to October buyers. So, now is the time to buy.

Summary

 

Payments: Over 5 year term buyers would make $37,260 less in payments 

Purchase price: Buyers could have saved an average of  $38,341 on purchase price

Balance: Mortgage balance after 5 year term would be $41,900 less

Income required: Buyers could buy an average home with $21,500 less in annual household income

Down payment: Roughly $3800 less would be required to be put down

CMHC Premium: Buyers could have saved $1380 in default insurance premiums

Interest rate could be approximately 1.0% less

 

The monthly payments required to purchase a home, the down payment required and the household income needed–are all better than they were in October 2022.  If you have clients sitting on the fence, show them the breakdowns and they can consider if now is the time. As you can see, if you crunch the numbers using average home sale prices and compare the rates from October to now, they show a favourable market for a buyer.

 

Clients can fill out our Mortgage Application  we will crunch the numbers for them and help you get some more pre-approvals today!

October 2022 and March 2023 VIREB Stats